Bitcoin Misses Milestone: Will Upcoming Data Push It Over $100K?

The dynamics of the US monetary policy are about to come into sharp focus in light of President-elect Donald Trump's appointment for Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, and a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee-things that set the stage for what might turn out to be key economic changes. Seen in the backdrop of fiscal conservatism topping Bessent's agenda with persistence in inflationary pressures, the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy is going to be the key ahead.

Bitcoin Misses Milestone: Will Upcoming Data Push It Over $100K?

Bitcoin has been headlining in the financial world, barely not reaching the historic milestone of $100,000. Important economic data will be unleashed in the crypto market this week. The big question is now whether this next big push of Bitcoin will manage to break it past the elusive milestone. That is where the critical macroeconomic indicators meet the market dynamics, which, by and large, sets up Bitcoin's trajectory in the days to come.

Bitcoin $100K: A Psychological Barrier in View

The cryptocurrency market had been very volatile, as the price of Bitcoin surged to briefly retreat below the $100K level. Market sentiments suggest it is ripe for crossing this key psychological barrier, yet uncertainties remain.

This performance underlines a great deal of investor confidence in Bitcoin, boosted by, among other factors, lessened regulatory threats and increased institutional adoption globally. However, it remains to be seen if the break above $100K will come from technical momentum or external market forces-the latter being controlled by this week's key economic events.

Key Events to Watch This Week

The following days will be replete with events that could point to the different trajectories that Bitcoin may take, from macroeconomic indicators to crypto-specific dynamics. Herein, a preview of the main events, in order:

• Tuesday, November 26 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): The measure that quantifies consumers for assessing sentiments and the ability to spend, hence the direct consequence on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

• Minutes of FOMC Meeting (2:00 PM ET): Minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting may provide insight into whether monetary conditions are supportive or restrictive for speculative assets.

• Wednesday, November 27 US PCE Inflation Data (8:30 AM ET): The Fed's favorite inflation indicator could set the tone for the market. Overinflation expectations may again nip rate cut hopes in the bud and cap Bitcoin.

• Q3 GDP First Revision (8:30 AM ET): Revised economic growth figures will give a better view of the strength of the US economy. It could influence risk-on appetite.

• Friday, November 29 Crypto Options Expiry (All Day): More than $10 billion options expiry in both Bitcoin and Ethereum keep volatility high. The Put/Call ratio is estimated at 0.80, with a max pain price of $77,000 for Bitcoin.

This would be a test of the market sentiment in case Bitcoin can breach the $100K milestone or retreat further from its highs currently.

Technical Analysis: Is Bitcoin Ready for $100K?

The technical indicators of Bitcoin paint a picture of a market on edge. Currently, the cryptocurrency trades just below $98,000, reflecting resilience but hesitancy near the psychological $100K threshold.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance:

• $99,000: Minor immediate short-term resistance for Bitcoin in attempting to reach $100K.

• $100,000: Major psychological and technical level. A sustained breach above this should trigger a rally toward higher targets.

Support:

• $96,000: Immediate downside cushion.

• $92,000: Stronger technical support, aligned with previous consolidation zones.

The price action suggests that at every step, there is a constant struggle between optimism and caution on the part of traders in the Bitcoin market. It would take a combination of friendly macroeconomic developments and robust trading volume for Bitcoin to break past $100K.

Crypto Options Expiry: A Game-Changer?

This coming Friday might mark a point of considerable return in Bitcoin price, as more than $10 billion in options are about to expire and increased volatility can be witnessed in the market.

On-Chain Metrics

BTC Options Expiration: 9.13 billion dollars options expire, max pain price at 77,000 dollars, Put/Call Ratio of 0.80

ETH Options Expiration: 1.24 billion dollar options expire, max pain price at 2,800 dollars, Put/Call Ratio of 0.77.

These indicators are pointing to very keen market interest and are biased to the bullish sentiment with those relatively low put/call ratios. However, volatility is a two-edged sword that could send an asset upwards or provide violent pullbacks.

Market Sentiment and Investor Outlook

The broader cryptocurrency market has remained optimistic, encouraged by news of greater institutional interest and laxening regulatory pressure. Major investors-for instance, the likes of Mike Novogratz-continue to speak highly of Bitcoin's prospects in the long run, reinforcing a variety of bullish narratives.

Still cautious, however, with analysts suggesting the upcoming inflation data and signs from the Federal Reserve would dial back any risk-on sentiment. Either way, this week's outcome for bitcoin depends on how both these macro and crypto-specific events play out.

Conclusion: What Awaits Bitcoin

Though the flirtation of Bitcoin with 100K stole the attention of the world, more than just momentum would be needed to achieve this. The week is full of key economic events: US PCE data, FOMC minutes, and a crypto options expiry of $10 billion that might have a notably broader effect on market dynamics.

Optimism abounds, but traders will do well to be very wary in this volatile landscape. The path of Bitcoin's next move that combined hard and exciting roads to $100K depends from a mix of technicals, sentiment, and macroeconomic forces.