Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent and WTI Prices May Drop in Harsh Economic Conditions

Introduction

Goldman Sachs has released a new oil market forecast that outlines multiple scenarios for the future of Brent and WTI crude prices. As energy markets navigate inflation, global slowdowns, and geopolitical tensions, the investment bank presents a roadmap that reflects both cautious optimism and potential downturns. With supply-demand dynamics shifting and central banks tightening monetary policy, oil remains a volatile yet critical asset to monitor.

Key Takeaways

• Brent could reach $62 per barrel in 2025 under normal conditions

• WTI may sit at $58 per barrel by end of 2025

• A U.S. recession could drag Brent to $58 and WTI to $50

• Global slowdown without OPEC cuts may send Brent to $45

• In worst-case scenarios, Brent could drop below $40
  

Oil Market Outlook for 2025

Under Goldman Sachs’ baseline scenario, the global economy avoids a major recession, and OPEC+ increases production moderately to meet demand. In this case, Brent crude is projected to reach $62 per barrel by the end of 2025, while WTI settles around $58. The bank expects a slight decline in prices heading into 2026, with Brent dropping to $55 and WTI to $51 as supply catches up to demand and global economic activity cools off.

This scenario assumes that trade tensions remain under control, inflation continues to decline, and consumer demand remains steady. It's a moderately bullish outlook, one that reflects hope for a soft economic landing while still preparing for fluctuations.

Recession Risks and Price Impact

If the United States enters a standard economic recession, Goldman Sachs warns that demand destruction could pull oil prices down significantly. In this case, Brent could decline to $58 by late 2025, while WTI may touch $50. The effects of a slowdown would stretch into 2026, with continued price pressure expected.

Lower industrial activity, falling transportation demand, and declining manufacturing output would all contribute to weaker oil consumption. At the same time, if OPEC+ maintains or increases production, the oversupply could deepen the downturn in prices.

Severe Downturn and OPEC Supply Response

In the most bearish scenario presented, Goldman Sachs projects a global economic downturn alongside a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts. This double impact could push Brent crude prices below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026, creating turmoil in global energy markets.

Such low prices could force oil-producing nations into fiscal crises and prompt energy companies to slash investments in exploration, drilling, and new infrastructure. The long-term effects would not only impact oil but also related sectors such as shipping, logistics, and commodities trading.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs’ latest oil forecast paints a complex picture of the global energy market. While there is room for stability if economic growth continues and OPEC+ remains disciplined, there are real risks that could send oil prices sharply lower. Recession fears, global GDP slowdowns, and unpredictable supply moves make oil one of the most sensitive indicators of economic health today. Investors and policymakers must watch closely — because in this market, every decision can shift the tide.