As Apple enthusiasts eagerly await the iPhone 16 launch, Bloomberg's renowned tech journalist Mark Gurman has dampened expectations for a major upgrade cycle. In his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman warned that despite the excitement surrounding Apple's upcoming AI features, consumers may have to wait longer for the technology to truly deliver. He also downplayed the potential for the much-anticipated “super cycle” this year, citing economic and technological factors.
Key Takeaways:
Mark Gurman downplayed expectations for a super cycle following the iPhone 16 launch, citing minor hardware upgrades and delayed AI features.
The Apple Intelligence AI tools will roll out gradually, with the full suite of features not expected until later updates in iOS 18.1 and 18.2.
Gurman predicts that the real super cycle might arrive with the iPhone 17 next year, once Apple’s AI capabilities are fully integrated and available in key markets.
Global macroeconomic conditions, including smartphone demand in regions like China, may limit the success of the iPhone 16 launch this year.
Gurman’s Insights on the iPhone 16 Launch
Mark Gurman, a well-known Bloomberg columnist who specializes in Apple news, has become a trusted voice in the tech world due to his accurate predictions and insider information. His analysis ahead of the iPhone 16 launch offers a sobering take on what consumers can expect from Apple’s latest flagship product. While some analysts predicted a super cycle—where a large number of consumers would upgrade to the new iPhone—Gurman says this is unlikely to materialize in 2024.
According to Gurman, the primary reason is that the new iPhones will look nearly identical to last year’s models, with only minor camera upgrades and other incremental changes. This lack of significant innovation, combined with broader economic challenges like slowing smartphone demand in key markets such as China, may hinder widespread adoption.
Delayed AI Features in the iPhone 16 Launch
While Apple is poised to unveil its Apple Intelligence AI platform during the iPhone 16 launch, Gurman believes that many of the most anticipated AI features won’t be available immediately. He explained that Apple's generative AI tools will be rolled out in stages, with some key functionalities, such as the ability to summarize notifications, improve writing, and transcribe phone calls, arriving later this year with iOS 18.1 updates. Additionally, some features, like the AI-powered Image Playground and Genmoji capabilities, are delayed until iOS 18.2, set for release in December.
Gurman also pointed out that Apple’s AI capabilities won't be available in critical markets like the European Union and China upon launch, further tempering excitement for the iPhone 16.
No Super Cycle for iPhone 16, But iPhone 17 Could Change That
Gurman’s skepticism about a super cycle for the iPhone 16 launch stems not only from the delayed AI features but also from macroeconomic conditions that may dampen consumer enthusiasm. With global smartphone sales slowing, particularly in regions like China, and consumers holding off on upgrading their devices, it’s unlikely that the iPhone 16 will trigger the widespread rush for new devices that some analysts had predicted.
However, Gurman hinted that the long-awaited super cycle could finally arrive with the iPhone 17 next year. By then, Apple is expected to have fully developed its generative AI platform, and consumers may be more eager to upgrade once these advanced features are fully integrated into the iPhone ecosystem.
Conclusion: iPhone 16 Launch Brings AI Features, But Delays Expected
While the iPhone 16 launch will showcase Apple’s entry into the AI space with Apple Intelligence, consumers shouldn’t expect a revolutionary device upgrade this year. According to Mark Gurman, Apple's AI features will roll out gradually, and the most advanced tools won't be available until later in 2024. For those hoping for a super cycle, it seems that 2025—with the release of the iPhone 17—may be the year to watch.
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