As the presidency of Joe Biden is wearing out, his administration has been making a series of bold moves, which many experts fear may further destabilize world peace. Of the many, allowing Ukraine to strike deep within Russia using long-range missiles supplied by the U.S. takes precedence. With the already breaking-point geopolitical tension, these actions raise an obvious question: Is the world being pushed closer to World War 3?
Key Takeaways
Biden's World War 3 risks emerge as Ukraine is authorized to strike inside Russia with U.S. missiles.
Adding to this danger is that North Korea is allied with Russia. This guarantees an added layer of danger.
The "maximum pressure" policy on Iran promised by Trump is an added storm in the world's geopolitics.
As Biden exits, the world balance of power is changing and turning to Trump.
Biden's Gamble on World War 3: Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia
The Biden administration recently gave Ukraine a green light to use American long-range missiles to target Russian military sites. This new policy has left the world in astonishment as this amounts to a serious departure from the previously cautious posture of the U.S. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the decision, which will allow strikes in the Russian Kursk region, an area that now sees intense fighting due to the involvement of North Korean troops.
Whereas Kyiv justifies this position as the only rightful response to defeat the aggression of Russia, critics say that's a dangerous escalation. The response from Russian President Vladimir Putin-now promising nuclear retaliation for such strikes-was rhetoric in jarring contrast. Never has the danger of a catastrophic misstep been higher, with anxious NATO allies looking on from the sidelines.
And adding another layer of complication to this, infiltration by thousands of North Korean troops to help Russia regain lost territories, this Moscow-Pyongyang alliance has the overtones of an emerging and profound geopolitical divide that would only make U.S. efforts at de-escalation more complicated.
The North Korean Factor: A New Front in Biden's Strategy
North Korea's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a game-changing development. According to intelligence reports, up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in Russia, accompanied by large arms shipments to augment Moscow's dwindling supplies of military gear.
But the element of this North Korean alignment with Russia was also part of what motivated Biden to authorize strikes inside Russia. The White House hopes it sends a strong signal to Pyongyang that its actions have consequences. Critics counter the escalation of war risks provoking unpredictable responses from not only Russia but its allies, including China.
That would imply that North Korean troops line up to underline an emerging axis among foes of the U.S., amid warnings of a more generalized coalition against the West. Nicholas Williams, a former senior official at NATO, has said the policy shift was "significant in terms of the end game," indicating it could be about preventing Ukraine from caving into Russian territorial demands.
Iran and the Middle East: Trump's Incoming "Maximum Pressure" Campaign
As Biden ramps up tensions in Europe, President-elect Donald Trump has signalled a dramatic shift in the U.S.'s Middle East policy. According to reports, Trump's transition team is preparing to revive the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran-aimed at crippling its nuclear programme and regional influence.
It includes re-imposing crippling sanctions on Iranian oil exports that have grown on his watch to more than 1.5 million barrels a day. To Trump's team, the measures are essential in a bid to bankrupt Iran's regime from financing regional proxy groups. But analysts caution these moves are bound to retaliate, bringing further instability to the explosively volatile Middle East.
Iran has responded defiantly, as the Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed what he termed "maximum intimidation" methods. The Iranian government has also used tough words yet does not rule out negotiations, though warily, any deal that may make its regional strategy go bust.
The hawkish line of Trump cuts through the middle of Biden's policy on Iran, and an aggressive plan of Trump's administration may lead to a new flare-up since the Middle East is a tinderbox of conflicts.
Escalating Global Conflicts: Both Domestic and International Politics Enter the Fray Domestically, Biden's recent steps have been seized on by political opponents. Donald Trump Jr. accused the administration of deliberately inflaming the war in Ukraine to create a messy dynamic for Trump should he return to office seeking to negotiate peace. "The military-industrial complex wants to ensure World War 3 before my father takes over," Trump Jr. tweeted.
Meanwhile, the actions by Biden seem to be set in place to nail his legacy in foreign policy. More aid to Ukraine and lifting some of the limits on the latter's military capability-most of Biden's decisions pointedly signal absolute support for Kyiv. Yet, this approach is very risky and may lead to a direct confrontation with Russia, which can get out of control.
Setting the stage for a high-stake transition of power, the outgoing administration's approach to the Iran and Ukraine conflicts couldn't be more different. The incoming policies from Trump promise a sharp pivot in strategy likely to further strain US relationships with key international players.
The Looming Specter of World War 3
As Biden is about to leave office, the final decisions of his administration seal the final curvature of a fragile geopolitical horizon: permission for Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, involving North Korea in the conflict, and announced renewal of U.S. pressure on Iran confer a really uncertain character on the global situation.
Meanwhile, Putin's nuclear threats and worsened alert status from NATO are also showing just how grave it has already become. With Trump promising peace and stability, the world may already be on a path too perilous to reverse.
Now marks an increasingly perilous pivot for the international community. Will Biden's actions cement a far stronger position for Ukraine and deter U.S. adversaries, or will they create an irreversible slide toward global conflict? The answer may determine the course of history in the months to come.
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