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Markets spiral into chaos as Israel and Iran inch closer to all-out war-where to invest in safe-haven assets.

  • Writer: MarketAlley's Editorial
    MarketAlley's Editorial
  • Oct 3, 2024
  • 4 min read

Updated: Nov 4, 2024

This conflict of Israel and Iran totally disrupts global markets in the wake of rising concerns that geopolitics are getting worse. Major stock indices are on a downward move in regard to the announced missile attacks and rising hostilities. Furthermore, the risk of disruptions to oil supplies can't be ignored. Safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold are in higher demand as traders grope through these uncertain times, while the opposite is happening in stock markets.


Market Turmoil Amid Israel-Iran Conflict: Investors Flee to Safe-Haven Assets

Key Takeaways:

  • The Israel-Iran conflict has created sharp market fluctuations, thus driving investors toward safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.

  • Oil prices have risen on growing concern about supplies from the oil-rich state, while analysts warn of further gains if the conflict widens.

  • Stock markets, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, have slipped after the effects of geopolitical tensions.

  • The long-term consequence could be more inflation, a hold on rate cuts that adds up to a very complicated global recovery.


Anxiety in Markets Created by Israel-Iran Conflict


The conflict between Israel and Iran just got worse. With a number of missiles attacking the region, the conflict has considerably gone up these days. According to the Ambassador of Israel Danny Danon, the latest attack is the "largest" missile attack in the history of Israel. This is very significantly followed by the rise in violence. Out of 200 missiles launched, the majority were neutralized by the Israeli defense system, but an act like this has brought a wide impact on the mindset of investors around the globe.


Among fears that Iran supports militant groups like Hezbollah and Israel retaliates against Lebanese targets, the anxiety is that it escalates into a larger conflict that may contaminate global oil supplies. Iran ranks as the world's seventh-largest oil exporter, so even a partial disruption to Iranian oil supplies might set off the energy markets and force prices higher amid rising inflation concerns.


Safe-Haven Assets Higher on Uncertainty


The conflict between Israel and Iran pushed investors towards safe-haven investments and away from riskier assets. In a more classic fashion, the U.S. dollar was strengthened, supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier in the week.


Demand for gold also increased, as the classic safe-haven asset started to show the increasing fears over a possible Middle East protracted conflict. SPDR Gold Trust, or GLD, had only a slight variation during Tuesday's trading, which closed at $245.33. Oil prices increased as well, at which the United States Oil Fund, USO, traded higher at $72.13 as of Wednesday.


Global Markets Impact

It is not a given that the shockwaves from the conflict have bypassed the stock markets. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a spurt in no little volatility in global equities, particularly as investors assess the possibility of further escalation.


Major indexes, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have both declined as a result of the conflict. The S&P 500 traded 0.08% in the red during Tuesday afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones shed 0.02%. The Nasdaq was mostly flat, up 0.09%. ETFs tracking the major indexes moved similarly to the underlying indexes themselves as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ticked down 0.01%, while SPDR Dow Jones was slipping 0.27%.


Oil Markets Get Ready for a Potential Disruption

The most serious threat in the line of geopolitics today is, of course, the menace to oil supplies. With Iran playing a major role in the production of oil on the world stage, the Israel-Iran conflict has resurfaced and has once again reminded investors that new bouts of escalation might once again disrupt the supply chain of oil on the global front. It could be another bargain story for upward price pressures, translating into another wave of upward inflationary pressure and making the balancing job of central banks complicated.


Energy analysts are bracing for any signs of broader conflict, with tensions already running high between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said investors were "rightly fearful" that the conflict could cause a global spike in the price of oil. But he said the impact is unlikely to be as profound as the shock to oil markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


The Wider Economic Implications of the Conflict Between Israel and Iran

As yet, it is not obvious exactly what the direct economic implications of this conflict between Israel and Iran will be. There is, of course, obviously a possibility of increased oil prices and upward pressures on inflation, so central banks may delay rate cuts as they seek to stabilize markets and dampen price rises.


Moreover, geopolitical tensions could further prolong current supply chain issues, particularly in energy, which also bears the weight of adaptation to the adjustment of sanctions against Russia and transition into renewable energy sources. This high price of oil may find its way into rippled global economies, from increased transportation costs to goods at final consumer level.ation costs to consumer goods.

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