Natural Gas price shows no signs of fatigue and resides near the high of 2024. Brussels is discussing keeping Gas flows from Russia open for next year. The US Dollar Index resides near 105.00 ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Fed meeting.
Natural Gas prices (XNG/USD) surged on Tuesday, approaching a fresh yearly high, as Europe deliberates on maintaining gas flows via Ukraine for the coming year amidst increasing supply from Norway. While Norwegian flows have reached their highest levels since April, Europe is exploring talks with Ukraine and Russia to ensure continuous gas flow.
This situation is particularly sensitive for Europe, which had previously vowed to ban Russian gas. With uncertainties looming over Europe's ability to become independent from Russian gas, prices are rallying as traders foresee a need for increased gas purchases if a deal cannot be struck between Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, remains stable above 105.00. The DXY saw some movement on Monday due to outcomes from the European elections, but the fluctuations have since stabilized. Traders are now awaiting major events on Wednesday, including the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision and dot plot.
Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.07 per MMBtu.
Market Movers:
Australia: Bloomberg reports that Chevron has halted all gas production at its Wheatstone offshore facility in Australia to complete repairs to the fuel system. Production was already suspended on Monday.
Ukraine: Ukraine’s state-run Gas company Naftogaz reports substantial interest from Europe in tapping its gas reserves and facilities.
Europe: Europe is considering bypassing Ukraine should Kyiv not cooperate with a European-Russian gas deal. One option is to divert gas flows from Ukraine to Azerbaijan into Europe, according to Bloomberg.
Technical Analysis:
Natural Gas prices have printed five consecutive green daily candles, indicating strong upward momentum. The pivotal level near $3.07, which has previously capped price movements, remains a critical barrier. Breaking above this level could see prices quickly rise to $3.50. Conversely, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2.53 acts as the first line of support, with further support at $2.14 and the 100-day SMA at $2.11.
As the market awaits significant economic data and policy announcements, traders will closely watch these technical levels and the outcome of geopolitical negotiations regarding gas flows through Ukraine.
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