As the third-quarter 2024 earnings season begins, investors are closely watching how major sectors, particularly banks and technology, perform amid economic uncertainty and evolving market dynamics. With the Earnings Season Begins, a number of key players are expected to report, including several of the country’s largest banks, which often set the tone for the rest of the market.
Key Takeaways:
Major Banks Take Lead: Financials, with Bank of America and Citigroup leading the way, will set the early tone for earnings season.
Tech Dominates Earnings: The technology sector, driven by NVIDIA, is expected to report the highest earnings growth.
Guidance Matters: Q4 2024 guidance will play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment and stock performance.
Energy Sector Lags: With a forecasted 19.1% decline, the energy sector is expected to underperform in Q3 earnings.
Financial Sector Leads as Earnings Season Begins
Major Banks Set the Tone
The financial sector, spearheaded by major players like Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), is expected to drive early earnings momentum. Last week’s stronger-than-expected earnings from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have already raised investor confidence. While loan growth has been slow, wealth management and investment banking revenue have bolstered the earnings of larger financial institutions compared to smaller regional banks. Analysts predict the sector will see modest growth at around 1.6% year-over-year.
Technology Dominates Q3 Earnings
NVIDIA Leads Tech's Performance Surge
The technology sector is projected to lead all industries with a forecasted earnings growth of 15.5%. NVIDIA (NVDA) stands out as the most significant contributor, riding high on the demand for AI-driven semiconductors. Without NVIDIA’s influence, tech sector growth would be around 7.5%, showing just how pivotal the company’s success is for the broader market.
Other big names in the tech sector, including Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL), are also expected to post strong results. The strength of tech stocks has been a major driver behind S&P 500 performance in recent years, and this quarter is expected to continue that trend.
Key Themes as Earnings Season Begins
Focus on Forward Guidance
As Earnings Season Begins, companies will not only be judged on their Q3 results but also on their forward guidance. With projections for Q4 2024 earnings growth set at 14.8% and full-year 2025 earnings growth at 15%, investor sentiment hinges on companies’ future outlooks. Firms with a positive forecast will likely see stock price boosts, while those with cautious or negative guidance may face downward pressure.
Consumer Spending and Inflation's Role
The strength of consumer spending remains critical as companies like American Express (AXP) and Discover Financial Services (DFS) prepare to report. The U.S. retail sales report on Thursday will provide further insight into consumer activity, directly affecting these companies' performance. As inflation pressures ease, spending behavior will be an important factor in shaping the market's trajectory.
Energy Sector Declines
On the flip side, the energy sector is expected to struggle with a 19.1% decline in earnings, driven by falling oil and natural gas prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the sector's year-over-year earnings slump is predicted to weigh on the overall performance of the S&P 500.
The Global Impact on Q3 Earnings
International sales could receive a modest boost from the slight weakening of the U.S. dollar in recent months. With roughly 40% of S&P 500 companies' sales coming from abroad, favorable exchange rates are expected to provide a tailwind to Q3 profits for multinational corporations.
As Earnings Season Begins, financials, technology, and consumer spending trends will be key drivers of market performance. With many companies releasing forward guidance, investors will be watching closely to gauge sentiment for Q4 and beyond.
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