After the stock market rally finally showed signs of exhaustion, with lurking inflation, investors look forward to the upcoming earnings season with some hope.
Stocks have struggled this week to repeat their strong start to the year with rising inflation data and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials about interest rate cuts providing headwinds. That's despite a robust 2023 which saw all three major US indexes repeatedly set record highs and fuel expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2024.
Yet perceptions persist that the coming earnings season will give life to the market's momentum. Analysts are expecting first-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies to extend the streak, rising at a growth of 3.1% from the year-earlier period. That would mark a third consecutive quarterly increase in earnings and put full-year profits up some 10.7%.
Earnings season gets under way next week, and the various sector winners and losers should at least start to firm up a bit. Investors will be looking to quarterly updates from the likes of Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase for continued signs of consumer spending strength and broad-based economic resiliency.
But the signals are mixed as to whether it's a healthy economy or not. Sure, the U.S. job market is robust, payrolls are up by 303,000 in March, while consumer sentiment-and consumer spending-is stuck in a gray area. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures and the geopolitics of oil supply have taken a heavy toll on investors' sentiments.
Investors would henceforth keenly await every announcement on macro data, trading activity of foreign investors, and the movement of crude oil prices for further cues on the direction of markets. In fact, this earnings season could prove to be the critical factor to decide the future near-term trend of markets as stocks were seen pricey at current levels and the jury was still out on the inflation-interest rate outlook.
Analysts say that earnings need to beat forecasts if the market is to build on its rally but the converse is that weaker-than-expected profits would give the Federal Reserve even greater cause to loosen monetary policy-a silver lining for investors.
Earnings reporting is at the door, and the market is keen for corporate guidance on the economy, inflation, and prospects ahead. This earnings season is shaping up as one of the pivotal moments for the stock market in 2024 after high valuations and increased scrutiny of earnings quality.
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