Who Won the Trump vs. Harris Debate? Polls and Market Reactions Are Split

The first Trump vs. Harris debate was one of the most anticipated moments of the 2024 election season. With both candidates in a razor-thin race, this debate was an opportunity to sway undecided voters and solidify their bases. Early polls, however, show mixed reactions to the debate, and the financial markets also responded cautiously. While Kamala Harris emerged as a slight winner in some instant polls, Donald Trump managed to deliver some strong moments as well, leaving the race in a dead heat.

Key Takeaways:

• Kamala Harris was slightly favored by instant polls, but the debate left the race still close.

• Donald Trump was stronger on the economy, while Harris led on healthcare and foreign policy.

• Both candidates had different approaches on immigration, with Trump taking a stricter stance and Harris advocating for comprehensive reform.

• The financial markets reacted cautiously, showing minimal movement post-debate, reflecting the lack of decisive shifts in policy positions.

Trump vs. Harris: A Breakdown of Key Issues

Economy: Trump Strong, Harris Focused on Families

When it came to the economy, Donald Trump played to his strengths, focusing on tax cuts and deregulation. He repeatedly criticized the Biden-Harris administration for what he called "runaway inflation" and promised to restore the economic stability seen during his presidency. Trump's defense of his economic policies, including his stance on tariffs, resonated with his core supporters but lacked fresh ideas to appeal to moderates or undecided voters.

Kamala Harris, in contrast, took a more measured approach, offering specific plans aimed at middle- and working-class families. She pledged to extend child tax credits and cap the price of prescription drugs. Harris’ focus on improving the lives of everyday Americans gave her a broader appeal, but some critics noted she did not offer enough detail on long-term economic solutions. Despite this, her strategy seemed to work in terms of positioning herself as a candidate focused on economic equality.

Healthcare: Harris Takes the Lead

Harris scored points on healthcare, outlining her administration’s achievements in reducing the cost of life-saving drugs and extending health benefits to more Americans. She emphasized her goal to cap insulin costs and extend Medicare-like coverage to more citizens, building on the Biden administration’s healthcare legacy.

Trump, however, stuck to his long-standing opposition to the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, criticizing its costs and inefficiencies. While Trump has always been critical of the ACA, he failed to outline a viable replacement plan, which may have weakened his position on this issue. His arguments resonated with his supporters but likely did little to win over new voters.

Foreign Policy: Harris' Diplomatic Approach vs. Trump's "America First"

On the international stage, Kamala Harris sought to distance herself from Trump's "America First" policies, advocating for the importance of rebuilding alliances and restoring America's role as a global leader. She promised to work with NATO allies, strengthen trade agreements, and tackle climate change through international cooperation.

Trump, on the other hand, doubled down on his foreign policy legacy, which includes withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and pressuring NATO allies to increase their military spending. He touted these moves as evidence that he prioritized American interests above all else. However, his lack of specifics about future foreign policy initiatives left some analysts questioning how his second term might differ from his first.

Immigration: Trump’s Tough Stance vs. Harris' Humanitarian Approach

On immigration, Donald Trump reverted to his hardline rhetoric, advocating for stricter border control measures and emphasizing the need for continued construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall. He positioned himself as the candidate who could best protect America from illegal immigration, aligning his policies with his base.

Kamala Harris, however, took a more humanitarian approach. She acknowledged the complexities of immigration and argued for comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She criticized Trump for separating families at the border and pledged to implement a more humane immigration system. While Harris’ approach may have resonated with progressive voters, her critics argue that her policies are too lenient for a country facing increasing border challenges.

Climate Change: Harris vs. Trump on Green Policies

Kamala Harris was unequivocal in her stance on climate change, proposing aggressive measures to reduce carbon emissions, invest in green energy, and rejoin international climate agreements like the Paris Accord. Harris framed the climate crisis as one of the defining issues of the next decade, and she presented her plan as a comprehensive solution to both environmental and economic challenges.

Donald Trump, however, maintained his skepticism of the climate change agenda, dismissing many of the scientific warnings as exaggerated. He focused on promoting energy independence through fossil fuels and protecting American jobs in industries like coal and oil. While his stance remains popular with his base, particularly in energy-producing states, it is less likely to appeal to younger and more environmentally conscious voters.

Market Reaction to the Trump vs. Harris Debate

While the debate was more about rhetoric than policy details, financial markets were watching closely for any shifts that might affect investor confidence. Following the debate, market reactions were relatively muted, reflecting the lack of substantial new economic policies.

Stock futures dropped slightly during the debate, with S&P 500 E-minis down 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slipping 0.6%. The dollar index also fell by 0.2%, reflecting some uncertainty in the markets. Analysts noted that while Harris may have come out ahead in instant polls, the overall impact on the economy remains unclear.

Prediction markets saw a slight shift in Harris’ favor, with her odds improving to 56%, while Trump’s odds fell slightly to 48%. This suggests that while Harris may have won the night, Trump’s core support remains resilient, and the race continues to be tight.

In the longer term, the debate is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the markets unless one candidate manages to secure a definitive lead in the polls. Investors are still more focused on upcoming economic data, including the U.S. inflation report, and how the Federal Reserve will respond with interest rate cuts.