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Market Sentiment Mixed in Anticipation of Fed Decision as Analysts Prepare for Potential Turning Point US stock futures suggest a tepid Wednesday morning as investors enter cautious mode, waiting for the highly contemplated decision of interest rates by the Federal Reserve.  This pre-decision anxiety is not an unusual sentiment, as typically, on the days when the Federal Reserve decisions are on, trading tends to slow down before it. The market's action is dependent on the Fed's economic projections to be in line with expectations. This might lead to heavy buying, especially in case of a dovish outcome. However, a reversal is possible depending on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's commentaries post-announcement and lends cautious tone to the market. Also contributing to the expectations are key earnings announcements scheduled for today. Yesterday's Action and Today's View: Stock markets rebounded on Tuesday, after an indecisive start, on hopes for a dovish Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered higher from its opening and never looked back. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 quickly reversed early losses to trade in positive territory, the latter at a new record high. The majority of S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with energy, consumer discretionary, and utility stocks leading. Insights from Market Analysts: Analysts have readjusted their predictions after the unexpected inflation data last week. According to Louis Navellier, any potential Fed rate cut may be delayed until June or later. He says, "Wholesale inflation surged in February." John Lynch, Comerica's chief investment officer, foresees a temporary retreat in equity markets, a familiar phenomenon in presidential election years. Lynch also points out signs of an impending topping process in the S&P 500, pointing out possible pullbacks within a set range or area. Market Indicators and Upcoming Events: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was barely changed premarket, while the Invesco QQQ ETF ticked up slightly. Today's lineup includes the weekly petroleum status report from the Energy Information Administration, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision and a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. A slew of companies are due to report quarterly earnings after the close of trading, including BlackBerry Limited, Chewy Inc., and Micron Technology Inc. Global Markets Watch Crude oil futures did a partial retreat after their advances of late, while gold futures posted a limited loss ahead of the Fed meeting. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was down marginally to 4.277%. Bitcoin fell modestly, at $63,000 or so. Asian markets ended up but cautiously so, while European stocks fell in early trading. As the market braces for the Fed's decision, uncertainty lingers. Will the Fed maintain its dovish stance, or will surprises emerge? With today's events shaping market sentiment, investors remain vigilant amidst the potential for significant developments.

Assessing the Odds: Experts Weigh In on Ethereum ETF Approval Ahead of May Deadline The future of Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) remains very dicey, with regulatory decisions looming large amidst growing anticipation. Two recent events have thrown a shadow of uncertainty on the prospect of ETF approval and may make investors reassess their expectations and strategies. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart sparked the conversation by updating his thesis on Ethereum Spot ETFs, believing they wouldn't see the light of day. The usually cautiously optimistic Seyffart now is more biased toward rejection in this surprising turn. He cited the SEC's lack of engagement on Ethereum-specific issues and emphasized that the May 23 deadline is an important one that would likely disappoint ETF aspirants. Spirits within the crypto community were driven even further down when, recently, the SEC postponed the approval process for several highly-anticipated Ethereum ETF applications. Among these highly-known proposals that faced a delay were those from industry giants like VanEck, Ark Invest, Hashdex, and Grayscale, which tempered expectations of a favorable outcome. Efforts to strengthen their applications by adding staking components-from Grayscale and Fidelity, among others-are at the forefront, but uncertainties linger. While staking is the key mechanism in Ethereum's proof-of-stake model and brings with it potential income streams, it also begs for regulatory scrutiny. The possible risks to investors have summoned US lawmakers to urge caution on the issue, putting more cloudiness into the air about ETFs. With the crypto world bracing for pivotal decisions in May, it is a landscape fraught with both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders. Will Ethereum ETFs finally overcome the odds and get regulatory approval, or will the May deadline usher in a new chapter of uncertainty? Only time will tell, but the journey promises to be as interesting as ever.

Bitcoin Braces for $60,000 Support as Speculation Heats Up Over Fed Interest Rate Decision The crypto market has witnessed the heavy liquidation of almost $670 million amid the FOMC meeting expectation. While investors' expectations were set for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates untouched, investors turned wary; hence, prices of Bitcoin and altcoins nosedived. Bitcoin had lost 6% in a way that it tested the $60,000 support area, while ETH was dropping 8% to test $3,000. Altcoins were also deeper into correction as more or less board's gains were lost. The remarkable thing about the liquidation event is that it cost $670 million of both long and short positions - a fact highlighting increased market volatility. Analysts at K33 Research said the market might continue to witness further downside volatility resulting from long liquidations-a signal that may insinuate how hard it would be for the market to recover so soon. The big players like Microstrategy were still buying Bitcoin, a show of confidence in the asset's long-term outlook. As for what was expected at the FOMC meeting, the market didn't doubt the Fed would look to sticky inflation rates and improved unemployment figures, so there was no cause to believe immediate rate cuts would be imminent. Lower inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and now the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US were two major reasons contributing to conservative sentiments in the market. It has been tough for the price action of Bitcoin to hold above $60,000, and key support levels became a close watch by the market players. Traders and analysts said the upcoming FOMC decision would take some pressure off the severely oversold crypto assets and might give way to a relief bounce. Traders haven't been too aggressive in their bets with the rally of Bitcoin into key support levels, expecting it to further go downhill when support around $60,000 breaks. The result of the FOMC meeting would affect short-term price action in the Bitcoin market. In a nutshell, the market witnessed increased liquidation in the cryptocurrency space on the back of uncertainty over the FOMC meeting, where Bitcoin couldn't sustain above its key support levels. Traders were looking ahead for more clarity from the Fed for further direction of the market in the coming days.

U.S. crude oil futures jumped above $81 a barrel Thursday, the highest since early November, after the International Energy Agency forecast a supply deficit for 2024. The WTI April contract rose $1.54, or 1.93%, to settle at $81.26 a barrel, while the Brent May contract was up $1.39, or 1.65%, at $85.42 a barrel. The other big driver for the rally is a revised forecast from IEA for a slight supply deficit, not a surplus, for the year. Supply forecasts are based on supplies from OPEC+, which assumes that the producer group maintains cuts through 2024-the cartel's cuts of 2.2 million b/d are slated for at least the second quarter. Meanwhile, global demand growth was revised up 110,000 bpd to 1.3 mb/d. The bullish momentum comes after a 2% gain in the price of oil on Wednesday, following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries earlier in the week. U.S. crude is up 13.4% so far in 2024, while the global benchmark is up 10.9% percent. Against the background of news like the following-to the extent that oil prices are mostly stabilized, the specter of increased Russian exports after Ukrainian attacks on refineries remains. Adding further to this uncertainty, U.S. interest rates with the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week feed into sentiment. Some analysts are still expecting Brent crude to trade in their forecast range of $80-$90 a barrel this year; putting their end-June estimate at $86 a barrel.

Natural gas prices in XNG/USD are shooting upwards, seeking to pierce the heavy resistance at $1.90. The five days have been totally beneficial since the price of gas is up close to 20%, while XNG/USD itself is up 6% today. Market analysts explain, "The rally is a mix of the continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Ukraine, the growing ESG considerations, and the unexpected production outages in the US and Norway. All these happenings are coinciding with the US Dollar Index surging to 104.00, particularly after a dovish interest rate hike by the BoJ, adding further momentum to the upward movement in natural gas prices. More as this becomes available.

Scott Bessent's naming by President-elect Donald Trump sent ripples throughout the financial markets. Investors reacted optimistically, pushing stock futures higher and stirring a rally in Treasury bonds. This article considers what the immediate market response was to Bessent's nomination, his likely policy outlook, and what that will mean for investors in the months ahead. Key Takeaways Markets have taken the nomination of Scott Bessent as Secretary of the Treasury quite positively and speak of stability with a growth-oriented agenda. U.S. stock futures rose while Treasury yields fell as investors remained optimistic. His policy priority for tax cuts, fiscal discipline, and balanced trade policies may shape trends in the market over the coming months. Global markets also reacted well to the news, posting gains in both Europe and Asia, reflecting how financial markets indeed are interwoven. Why Stocks Surge on Bessent's Nomination The nomination of Scott Bessent has been greeted with a surge in market optimism. For twenty years, as a manager of some of the largest hedge funds, his fiscally conservative manner and realistic economic vision had him widely regarded as a steadying influence. Part of a general trend toward more stable and reasonable economic policy was his appointment. Bessent has been on record in favor of Trump's tax-cut package and seems willing to trim provocative initiatives such as trade tariffs. Analysts said his stance was more in line with growth-based economic policies and has helped instill confidence among investors. UBS economist Paul Donovan said, "investors like orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence," and found these features in Bessent. Market Reaction: Stock Futures and Treasury Yields Immediately after the announcement, the U.S. stock futures and Treasuries rallied in price. Major indices, representing investor confidence, included the Dow Jones Futures up 0.7% and pointed to a high opening; the S&P 500 Futures were up by 0.5% after its weekly gain of 1.68%; and Nasdaq 100 Futures were up 0.5%, furthering their increase. Meanwhile, the bond market was up and Treasury bond yields fell. The yield on the 10-year note fell 5 basis points from Friday's close to 4.35%. Lower yields typically indicate there is stronger demand for bonds-a proxy for investor confidence in economic stability. The U.S. dollar weakened moderately, with the WSJ Dollar Index moving back from its two-year peak. The rationale for such movements reflects shifting expectations for inflation and interest rate policy under the new leadership in the Treasury. Bessent's Policy Outlook and Its Implication Bessent has brought an elaborated policy direction with sharp attachment to tax reforms and fiscal discipline. His vow to reduce government spending and to keep the federal deficit in order was hailed by Wall Street. However, this balanced tone of his on trade tariffs ignited debates within Trump's protectionist economic team. Following are some critical implications of Bessent's policy priorities elaborated by market experts. Tax Cuts: Bessent is bound to iron out the tax cuts made by Trump that have cradled corporate earnings and economic growth. Trade Policies: Harsh on free trade, his balanced approach would lower the volatility of the markets linked to tariff disputes now. Fiscal Discipline: The commitment to a reduction of government spending would console bond investors, although it may be resisted politically. Global Market Response post Bessent's Appointment Optimism from Bessent's nomination was not crippled in the U.S. markets alone, as European and Asian stocks were higher overseas: Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 1.3%, buoyed by expectation for an improvement in trade affairs between the U.S. and Japan. European Markets were broadly higher, with relief written large on the perceived stability that Bessent brings. Chinese Indices fell modestly, amid lingering geopolitical concerns and regulatory challenges. But the international reaction is a function of something else-that is, how interdependent today's capital markets have become-and policy measures taken in the US went around the world like a contagion. What It Means for Investors Going Ahead Investors should remember a few things in the context of Bessent's appointment and, on a broader scale, the state of the economy: Equity Outlook: Stocks should realize probable significant gains, specifically in industries that benefit from tax cuts and deregulation.  Bond Market Trends: Falling Treasury yields indicate a conducive environment for fixed-income investments, though risks of inflation remain. Dollar Volatility: The weakened dollar may help exports and shall benefit multinational companies with substantial overseas exposure. Global Dynamics: International investors could look toward markets that are positively impacted by U.S. policy stability. Conclusion With the appointment of Scott Bessent to the position of Secretary of the Treasury, investors have a reason to hope-perhaps-for some stellar market performances. His pragmatic economic policy and stability he brings into the economy are good omens for U.S. and global markets. As investors forge ahead, they observe how Bessent balances growth initiatives against fiscal responsibility in what is going to be a balancing act in most ways.

Oil markets started the new week on a softer note after a week of robust gains on the back of geopolitical tensions. Both Brent crude and WTI posted marginal losses early in European trading hours as traders' attention turned to possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah, though losses were capped amid rising geopolitical risks from Iran and Russia. For now, the oil market focuses on the next moves by OPEC+, which more than likely will consider developments associated with Iran's nuclear activities. Both are expected to dictate the near-term trajectory of the prices. Key Takeaways: Oil prices retreated modestly from last week's 6% rally, which was driven by geopolitical tensions that could bring about supply disruptions. The OPEC+ output cuts decision-making process continues to dominate market mood. Changes in the stance of Iran's nuclear policy and the U.S.-Iranian relationship have the potential for further impacts on oil's supply equation. Oil Markets Rally Amid Geopolitical Tensions Oil Markets leaped over the week, with Brent crude ending the week at $73.99 a barrel and WTI at $70.59 a barrel, up 6%. The rally was propelled by the increased war between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with growing concerns about supply disruptions in Iran. Besides, a series of announcements by Iran about more advanced centrifuges at its nuclear facilities after censure by the IAEA drew wide attention.Analysts warn that tighter enforcement of sanctions under the incoming U.S. administration could hit about 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports. They are also concerned about spills over from different Middle East conflicts, which might eventually involve key oil facilities. All these geopolitical events have kept the volatility high in the oil markets. OPEC+ Sustains Market Interest On the wider canvas of geopolitics, another big driver for market sentiment is OPEC+. The production cuts this group has been carrying out all the while has been eminently instrumental in settling prices in a see-saw market receiving ups and downs both on demand and supply fronts. Some speculation has emerged as to whether OPEC+ will delay the scheduled phasing out of voluntary output cuts. The extension of cuts could help prop prices higher, while a move to ease restrictions could raise bearish pressure. According to analysts, the course of action the organization takes over the coming weeks could prove particularly influential in determining the path of price action. Iran's Nuclear Policy and Oil Supply The reaction of Iran to this IAEA censure, which includes increasing uranium enrichment, had increased tensions in the global oil market. The move from Tehran also comes amidst reports of upcoming negotiations with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany over its nuclear program. Market analysts say this could further disrupt Iranian oil supply. "Markets are concerned not only about damage to oil ports and infrastructure but also the contagion of war and involvement of more countries," says Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.  What's Ahead for Oil Markets? Traders will also be keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East ceasefire negotiations and Iran's nuclear policy throughout the week. Most of all, OPEC+ will be watched for any signs that the group might change its production policy. Current price easing indeed reflects reduced safe-haven demand in response to easing tensions, while oil markets remain resilient to the possibility of a sudden turn in geopolitical dynamics. With still very real prospects of supply concerns and upcoming OPEC+ decisions, the direction in which oil prices is headed remains for now an open question. Conclusion: Oil markets are walking a tightrope, where easing tensions contended with persistent geopolitical risks. Prices cooled further from last week's rally, but elements such as Iran's nuclear activities and OPEC+ output decisions remain the dominating factors in market sentiment. The interaction of these elements will determine the near-term trajectory of oil markets, with traders bracing for another week of volatility.

The dynamics of the US monetary policy are about to come into sharp focus in light of President-elect Donald Trump's appointment for Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, and a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee-things that set the stage for what might turn out to be key economic changes. Seen in the backdrop of fiscal conservatism topping Bessent's agenda with persistence in inflationary pressures, the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy is going to be the key ahead. Bitcoin Misses Milestone: Will Upcoming Data Push It Over $100K? Bitcoin has been headlining in the financial world, barely not reaching the historic milestone of $100,000. Important economic data will be unleashed in the crypto market this week. The big question is now whether this next big push of Bitcoin will manage to break it past the elusive milestone. That is where the critical macroeconomic indicators meet the market dynamics, which, by and large, sets up Bitcoin's trajectory in the days to come. Bitcoin $100K: A Psychological Barrier in View The cryptocurrency market had been very volatile, as the price of Bitcoin surged to briefly retreat below the $100K level. Market sentiments suggest it is ripe for crossing this key psychological barrier, yet uncertainties remain. This performance underlines a great deal of investor confidence in Bitcoin, boosted by, among other factors, lessened regulatory threats and increased institutional adoption globally. However, it remains to be seen if the break above $100K will come from technical momentum or external market forces-the latter being controlled by this week's key economic events. Key Events to Watch This Week The following days will be replete with events that could point to the different trajectories that Bitcoin may take, from macroeconomic indicators to crypto-specific dynamics. Herein, a preview of the main events, in order: Tuesday, November 26 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): The measure that quantifies consumers for assessing sentiments and the ability to spend, hence the direct consequence on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Minutes of FOMC Meeting (2:00 PM ET): Minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting may provide insight into whether monetary conditions are supportive or restrictive for speculative assets. Wednesday, November 27 US PCE Inflation Data (8:30 AM ET): The Fed's favorite inflation indicator could set the tone for the market. Overinflation expectations may again nip rate cut hopes in the bud and cap Bitcoin. Q3 GDP First Revision (8:30 AM ET): Revised economic growth figures will give a better view of the strength of the US economy. It could influence risk-on appetite. Friday, November 29 Crypto Options Expiry (All Day): More than $10 billion options expiry in both Bitcoin and Ethereum keep volatility high. The Put/Call ratio is estimated at 0.80, with a max pain price of $77,000 for Bitcoin. This would be a test of the market sentiment in case Bitcoin can breach the $100K milestone or retreat further from its highs currently. Technical Analysis: Is Bitcoin Ready for $100K? The technical indicators of Bitcoin paint a picture of a market on edge. Currently, the cryptocurrency trades just below $98,000, reflecting resilience but hesitancy near the psychological $100K threshold. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $99,000: Minor immediate short-term resistance for Bitcoin in attempting to reach $100K. $100,000: Major psychological and technical level. A sustained breach above this should trigger a rally toward higher targets. Support: $96,000: Immediate downside cushion. $92,000: Stronger technical support, aligned with previous consolidation zones. The price action suggests that at every step, there is a constant struggle between optimism and caution on the part of traders in the Bitcoin market. It would take a combination of friendly macroeconomic developments and robust trading volume for Bitcoin to break past $100K. Crypto Options Expiry: A Game-Changer? This coming Friday might mark a point of considerable return in Bitcoin price, as more than $10 billion in options are about to expire and increased volatility can be witnessed in the market. On-Chain Metrics BTC Options Expiration: 9.13 billion dollars options expire, max pain price at 77,000 dollars, Put/Call Ratio of 0.80 ETH Options Expiration: 1.24 billion dollar options expire, max pain price at 2,800 dollars, Put/Call Ratio of 0.77. These indicators are pointing to very keen market interest and are biased to the bullish sentiment with those relatively low put/call ratios. However, volatility is a two-edged sword that could send an asset upwards or provide violent pullbacks. Market Sentiment and Investor Outlook The broader cryptocurrency market has remained optimistic, encouraged by news of greater institutional interest and laxening regulatory pressure. Major investors-for instance, the likes of Mike Novogratz-continue to speak highly of Bitcoin's prospects in the long run, reinforcing a variety of bullish narratives. Still cautious, however, with analysts suggesting the upcoming inflation data and signs from the Federal Reserve would dial back any risk-on sentiment. Either way, this week's outcome for bitcoin depends on how both these macro and crypto-specific events play out. Conclusion: What Awaits Bitcoin Though the flirtation of Bitcoin with 100K stole the attention of the world, more than just momentum would be needed to achieve this. The week is full of key economic events: US PCE data, FOMC minutes, and a crypto options expiry of $10 billion that might have a notably broader effect on market dynamics. Optimism abounds, but traders will do well to be very wary in this volatile landscape. The path of Bitcoin's next move that combined hard and exciting roads to $100K depends from a mix of technicals, sentiment, and macroeconomic forces.

The dynamics of US monetary policy are going to be under the spotlight amidst President-elect Donald Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee setting the stage for what may be significant economic shifts. Given fiscal conservatism at the forefront of Bessent's agenda and persistence in inflationary pressures, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is going to hold the key going forward. Key Takeaways The appointment of Scott Bessent to the position of Treasury Secretary is representative of a shift toward fiscal conservatism that can have serious impacts on monetary policy. The FOMC meeting would focus on inflation management and rate cuts, hence cautious easing is expected. Markets are responding to the shifting fiscal-monetary dynamic; bond yields and the USD are reflecting heightened uncertainty. Trump's Monetary Policy: Change of Guard with Scott Bessent The choice of Scott Bessent by President-elect Trump to take over as Secretary of the Treasury has sent shockwaves in the financial markets. Conventional-thinking Bessent is soon going to usher in a significant shift towards trimming federal spending. This move aligns with Trump's overall perception of bringing down deficits and preventing government borrowing. Bessent has publicly made it known that he is for fiscal discipline in his bid to prevent wasteful spending. His prestige as an accomplished fund manager lends credence to his position; the problem is that his stance may be at variance with the dovish tendencies of the Federal Reserve. "In arguing for less federal borrowing, Bessent could reduce the fiscal stimuli available to counter slowdowns.". Société Générale market strategist Stephen Spratt said that Bessent's appointment is seen as a "safe hands" decision. "His hawkish stand would thus rein in the federal government's expenditure without eroding market stability," Spratt said. But beyond this, there are questions on the compatibility of Trump's economic goals with the Federal Reserve's objectives for the longer period. FOMC Policy Meeting : Expected Policy Moves Attention shifts to the Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting, where policymakers will seek to try and resolve a number of pressing issues, including inflation and interest rates. The Fed has given indications of a go-slow approach, with Chair Jerome Powell underscoring cautious easing amid resilience of inflation. Market expectations of a December rate cut have chilled, with the likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction at just over 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation-the personal consumption expenditures price index-is projected to rise 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, which would suggest continued upward pressure on prices. Minutes from the Fed's November meeting will be scrutinized for insight into internal deliberations, especially regarding the delicate balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth. The fiscal approach by Bessent and his role in shaping monetary policy: Bessent is coming in at a sensitive time when the Fed is trying to keep a tight leash on inflation without thwarting growth prospects. His advocacy for cuts in federal spending would limit the fiscal space for stimulation. For instance, Bessent's guidance likely will mean greater scrutiny of federal borrowing, which could restrain large infrastructure projects or other types of government spending aimed at stimulating demand. In that way, such conservatism could put more pressure on the Fed to use its monetary tool kit to keep growth going-long rate cuts. But this also is a dynamic that potentially creates friction between fiscal and monetary policy. The Fed may balk at aggressive rate cuts if fiscal tightening is perceived to be too abrupt, potentially slowing economic momentum. Market Reactions to Trump's Monetary Policy and the FOMC The interaction of Trump's monetary policy with the Fed's decisions to come has already begun pushing the financial markets to act accordingly. The US Treasury yields plunged after the announcement of Bessent's appointment, with the 10-year benchmark falling over 1.5% to 4.35%. The decline has suggested that investors view Bessent as fiscal moderate and also rein in some expectations of rate increases. The USD Index, a gauge of the greenback's relative strength against a basket of its main rivals, shed 0.55% to 106.90 and gave up recently-made gains. Analysts attributed this performance to profit taking and speculation about what the FOMC would deliver. Stocks are faring quite well due to growing expectations of a more predictable fiscal environment under Bessent's guidance. U.S. stock index futures were higher by between 0.4% and 0.6%, reflecting improved sentiment. Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook for 2024 The direction of rates in the US will be seen after the inflation print is followed by the durable goods orders and finally by the PCE index later that week. Inflationary pressures are set to spill over into 2024 on resilient consumer spending and still-tight labor markets, analysts said. The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts implies a gradual easing-in without compromising the twin objectives of price stability and growth. However, with Bessent guiding Trump's monetary policy, this may be complex. Balancing Fiscal Discipline and Growth Priorities The promise of reducing federal spending with Trump, while at the same time stimulating activity, is contradictory. A reduction of $2 trillion to the deficit would involve huge cuts in discretionary spending, entitlements, or defense budgets-all politically sensitive areas. Bessent might shuffle resources around rather than making any dramatic cuts, a more pragmatic approach wholly in keeping with his fiscal philosophy. Meanwhile, if Trump is to get anywhere near his ambitious economic targets, far closer cooperation between the Treasury and the Fed will be needed. What's Next for Markets? Immediate and Long-term Projections In the short term, markets will closely follow the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the release of the PCE index. A dovish tone by the Fed could give some relief to equities and further deflation to the USD. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation might fire up talks of tighter monetary policy. Going forward, monetary policy under Bessent's tutelage from Trump will probably change the fiscal-monetary paradigm. Greater fiscal discipline could make the economy more stable in the longer term, while also introducing some volatility as markets adjust to the less-accommodative environment.

Gold prices recently corrected after retracing from a three-week high of $2,721. Such a turn of events was because of the broader market dynamics-the shifting investor sentiment and changing geopolitical conditions. The drivers that explain the fluctuation in the market besides what could further be ahead are explained below. Key Takeaways Gold retreated from the three-week peak of $2,721 as geopolitical tensions relaxed. Pivotal support levels are now $2,650 and $2,630, while resistance levels are $2,700 and $2,721. The Federal Reserve policy and U.S. Treasury yields remain the most powerful drivers of the gold price. For the moment. One longer-term influence points to potential risk of new upside momentum. Key Drivers for Gold Price Correction Recent changes in the world markets have prompted this correction. The decline in geopolitical tensions, with reports suggesting progress toward a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, saw reduced attractions to gold as a safe-haven asset. Besides, the nomination of Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary brought a sense of stability, further shifting flows away from gold. On the monetary front, Federal Reserve policy still provides heavy influence on gold prices. While much more aggressive rate cuts had been priced in at the outset, recent commentary from policymakers has been considerably more measured. This has now priced in only a 25-basis-point rate cut for December. Gold is generally considered to thrive in low-rate environments; this recently cautious view has dampened the enthusiasm for gold. Technical Analysis: Critical Levels to Watch In this respect, Gold's correction has brought into light some critical technical levels. The precious metal briefly found support around the $2,660-$2,658 area, which has coincided with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hr time frame. A breach below this level is likely to expose further downside toward the $2,630 level - 50% Fibonacci retracement, and possibly as low as $2,610 - 61.8% retracement. On the upside, resistance is at $2,677, further capped by additional levels at $2,700 and recent peak at $2,721. Any sustainable move above these would confirm the renewed bull momentum and probably set a re-test of the all-time high at $2,790. Market Sentiment and Broader Trends The correction of the gold market underlines this effect due to global sentiment. Stronger US economic data, including Composite PMI reaching 55.3, drives risk-on sentiment and diverts money from gold into equities. Meanwhile, the sell-off in US Treasury bond yields below 4.35% has encouraged some profit-taking activity in the US Dollar, which partly cushions the fall in gold prices. While this may be the fact, the underlying long-term fundamentals for gold remain supportive. The unwind of shorts has created a technical floor, signaling that downside risk is limited. With major economic reports in store, which also include the minutes of the FOMC and the PCE inflation data, gold prices are likely to continue their action in short-term volatility. Conclusion Gold had corrected from the $2,721 mark to reflect better investor confidence and more measured expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed. The immediate outlook for the short term is one where the price of gold could further consolidate. But the longer-term case for gold as a hedge for both inflation and economic uncertainty is sound.

The USD index, a key measure of the value of the US dollar in relation to a basket of major currencies, briefly declined recently after the US treasury yield sharply tanked. The event reflected huge market movements after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Treasury yields sliding below 4.35% leave the big question about what that says about the short-term and long-term trajectory of the dollar. Let's find out what drove this slide, the impact on global markets, and what's likely in store for the US Dollar. Key Drivers Behind the USD Index Dip Weighing on the USD Index was the decline in US Treasury yields, reflecting at least in part the market euphoria which greeted Bessent's appointment. Indeed, this nomination of a veteran Wall Street figure and fiscal hawk has reassured edgy investors. However, his reputation for backing a strong dollar and trade protection measures added an unpredictable element. The currency market took a more cautious approach, with many traders merely sitting back. The wider economic backdrop played a part, too. An improving investor sentiment brought a rotation away from the perceived safety of the dollar as global equities gained and risk appetite improved. The dollar had recently enjoyed an eight-week run-up, one of the longest such streaks in decades, and was technically due for a period of consolidation. A mix of market optimism and overstretched conditions set the stage for a pullback in the USD Index. Global Spillovers The effects of the tumble in the USD Index extended beyond borders and trickled into global financial markets. In the currency front, some of the popular pairs posted a relatively respectable performance. The single currency bounded back with vigor to $1.048 from last week's two-year trough of $1.033. Likewise, Cable was able to fly up to $1.259 as well, despite investors' shrugging off weaker-than-expected retail sales data from the UK. Finally, the Japanese yen did nothing to impress despite its safe-haven features. USD/JPY was little changed, trading at about 154.30. Such periods of dollar strength usually signal headwinds for emerging market currencies, which had rallied in response to the dip. Investors flocked to higher-yielding assets, shoving up the likes of the South African rand and the Brazilian real, while commodities such as gold saw mixed fortunes. Gold prices retreated below $2,670, after a strong rally the prior week, as improving risk sentiment sapped its safe-haven appeal. What's Next for the USD Index? The USD Index outlook is somewhat uncertain, with a good number of influential elements likely to determine its direction. This will include the minutes of the Federal Reserve for further detail on the monetary policy stance. Markets have already trimmed expectations of a December rate cut to 52% from 72% a month earlier, which pretty much underlines the Fed's caution when it comes to mixed economic signals. Treasury yields will remain center stage. This recent slide has been a Drag on the dollar, but any form of bounce could give the USD Index some temporary support. Also, the shortened US trading week may amplify market swings: thinner trading volume often encourages more pronounced price action. Longer-term prospects for the dollar depend on fiscal policy both that the new administration is pursuing and on global trends. Although Bessent might grant confidence in the US economy, given his fiscal discipline, his support of a strong dollar with protectionist policies could add some volatility. On the other hand, the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other central banks is going to influence the competitiveness of the dollar in the world arena. Conclusion The recently occurred weakness in the USD Index was a good reflection of the tricky balance between Treasuries yields, fiscal policy expectations, and global market sentiment. While the near-term prospects for the US dollar are not that great, the longer-term view remains confused due to the various influences of monetary policy and fiscal strategies under the new administration. With traders on both sides of these uncertainties, the USD Index remains a hot topic for the financial world.

In a strategic move that might just reshape the US economic landscape, President-elect Donald Trump has tapped hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to lead the Department of the Treasury. With his strong connections to Wall Street and now vocal excitement about digital cryptocurrencies, Bessent's looming appointment creates a new economic trajectory—one toward a market-driven, more digital-friendly economy. In other words, if confirmed by the Senate, the stewardship of the Treasury Department done by Bessent may mean a sea change in the way that the nation's financial policies are run—not least in regard to those fast-flexing-muscle digital currencies. Key Takeaways: Scott Bessent is a hedge fund manager and cryptocurrency proponent who was appointed to be Secretary of the Treasury. Bessent's support for crypto follows from Trump's general approach to economics: deregulation and innovation. A nomination that apparently represents the growing interest in the inclusion of cryptocurrency in the mainstream financial system. Bessent brings along with him his experience in macro investment and economic strategy—the pivot that shall define future fiscal policies. Scott Bessent: Wall Street Veteran with Pro-Crypto Agenda Its founder, Scott Bessent, is hardly a stranger to high finance. Having worked alongside financier George Soros at Soros Fund Management, Bessent played an integral role in the fund's successful currency speculation—most notably the bet against the British pound. This rooted his insight into the global markets, gaining him a lot of respect among investors.It 's his interest in cryptocurrencies that does seem to pique many people's interest. Bessent has long been on record with his view on digital currencies and, in particular, Bitcoin as the future of finance. In the interview, he waxed poetic on the potential of the crypto economy in bringing fresh, young participants into the markets. With cryptocurrencies just taking their first hold globally, Bessent's appointment as Treasury Secretary might be the canary in the coal mine for a friendlier regulatory environment for digital assets, part of Trump's overall approach to economic growth and deregulation. Trump's Economic Vision: Moving Right, into the Market Trump's naming of Bessent reflects a greater economic philosophy that leans most predictably toward the market. An outspoken believer in tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies entering office, Trump makes it a point to foster an economic agenda that places growth and competitiveness at the front door. The hedge fund manager experience of Bessent and his experience with worldwide financial markets will be important in bringing into perspective the intricate issues of economic policy before the administration. Bessent had gone on the record to agree with many of the President's economic policies, including the push to extend 2017 Republican tax cuts. With this huge financial background, Bessent will carry on with Trump's program on economics in so many ways: shaping fiscal policy, tax reform, and trade negotiations, setting in concrete the position of this administration on minimal government involvement with the markets. Crypto Takeaway : The tide may finally be turning on regulation of cryptocurrency in a positive direction, in conjunction with an appointment to a knowledgeable and friendly Treasury Secretary to digital assets. This would seem to seal the deal that perhaps growth in the cryptocurrency market has reached the point at which it is inevitable.Long an advocate of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a way of disrupting current financial systems and returning power to the individual, under Bessent's tenure, the regulator may wear more even-handedness in terms of cryptocurrency regulation-deregulation that allows the market to grow under clearer, more predictable rules. One of the most significant challenges to cryptocurrency has no doubt been regulatory ambiguity. That might just change with Bessent in charge at the Treasury Department, whereby more crypto-friendly policies set a clear path not only for institutional adoption but also for mainstream uses.Clearer guidelines on digital currencies—maybe even inspired by Bessent—could very well mean better integration into the remainder of the financial system. Conclusion: The New Era for U.S. Economic Policy and Crypto Regulation? The day Scott Bessent gets nominated to the position of Secretary of the Treasury is a great day for the US economy and for cryptocurrency. With his strong pro-crypto stance, deeply informed in the field of macro-investing, he will be perfectly placed to help shape the nation's economic future. He will introduce innovation in placing the country in pursuit of very innovative and deregulated financial markets that should be favorable to both traditional and digital markets. With his confirmation in the Senate, the future of US economic policy is slowly but surely taking shape: embracing digital assets to nurture market-driven growth. Whether the greater financial community will give this approach their seal of approval, only time will tell, but for now, the nomination of Bessent serves a singular purpose: to loudly proclaim that this new era in economic policy just might be defined by mainstreaming cryptocurrencies.