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The likelihood of a 2024 market crash is currently below average, according to "froth forecasts" from State Street Associates, based on research by Harvard University professor Robin Greenwood. They define a crash as a 40% decline over the next two years, and the current probability is calculated at 18%, compared to the five-year average of 26%. Key Takeaways Current forecasts suggest a lower-than-average probability of a 2024 market crash. The high-tech sector shows reduced crash probabilities compared to historical averages. Market overvaluation is likely to be corrected through gradual deflation rather than a sudden crash. 2024 Market Crash Probabilities Understanding Froth Forecasts and Market Conditions State Street Associates' forecasts show that the probability of a 2024 market crash is lower than average, especially in the high-tech sector, which has seen significant returns and is often the focus of bubble predictions. The crash probability in this sector is four percentage points lower than the five-year average. The Importance of Defining a Market Bubble Many bubble predictions lack precise definitions and rigorous criteria. Yale University's Will Goetzmann emphasizes that without clear criteria, these predictions often reflect more about the analysts than the actual crash probabilities. Greenwood’s research ties crash probabilities to the stock market’s performance over the past two years, showing a higher probability of a crash following significant market run-ups. 2024 Market Crash: Performance and Concentration Recent Market Performance and Its Implications The S&P 500 has had a cumulative return of 48.9% over the past two years, significantly below levels associated with high crash probabilities. A 100% increase in the trailing two years leads to a crash probability close to 50%, while a 150% increase almost guarantees a crash. Market Concentration and Crash Predictions Some analysts point to the performance difference between the cap-weighted and equal-weight S&P 500 as a sign of an unhealthy market. This year, the cap-weighted index has outperformed the equal-weight version by over 10 percentage points. However, data since 1970 shows no consistent pattern between market concentration and subsequent performance, suggesting that concentration does not necessarily signal an imminent crash. Addressing Overvaluation Without a 2024 Market Crash Strategies for Market Correction The US stock market remains extremely overvalued, but there are many ways to address this overvaluation other than a crash. According to State Street's Froth Forecasts, a prolonged period of mediocre performance is more likely than a sudden 40% drop. Historical Analysis of Market Adjustments An analysis of historical data since 1970 shows no significant correlation between market concentration and subsequent crashes. This suggests that other factors are more critical in predicting market adjustments. Future Outlook: Beyond the 2024 Market Crash Predictions Prolonged Adjustment Over Sudden Decline Experts suggest that the market will likely adjust its overvaluation through steady, less volatile changes rather than a sudden crash. This gradual deflation could come in the form of extended periods of modest returns, helping to balance the market without causing widespread panic. Election Results and Market Stability The results of the upcoming election will play a significant role in shaping market expectations and policies. Political stability and policy decisions will influence investor confidence and market performance. Conclusion While bubble predictions are increasing, current data suggests a lower-than-average probability of a 2024 market crash. Both the overall market and the high-tech sector show probabilities below their respective five-year averages. Market concentration does not necessarily predict a crash, and overvaluation can resolve through various means without resulting in a dramatic decline. Insights from State Street and Greenwood suggest that a slow deflation is more likely than a sudden 40% drop.

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin whales and miners have offloaded over $1 billion worth of BTC. This significant selling activity coincides with net outflows from U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs during the same period, according to data from CryptoQuant. Key Takeaways Bitcoin whales and miners have offloaded over $1 billion worth of BTC in the past two weeks. The shift in focus from bitcoin mining to the AI sector has contributed to increased selling activity. Net outflows from U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs and a lack of renewed demand from large holders have impacted BTC prices. Bitcoin Whales: The Major Sellers Increased Selling Activity Long-term bitcoin holders and miners have been significant sellers of the cryptocurrency recently, with little indication of renewed buying interest. This trend is evident through a decrease in UTXO age bands, which indicates increased selling activity. Bitcoin whales, large holders of BTC, have sold over $1.2 billion worth of bitcoin in the past two weeks, likely using brokers instead of selling on the open market. Impact on Bitcoin Prices Traders have not been increasing their Bitcoin holdings, and the demand growth from large holders is still lacking strength. This lack of demand has contributed to a decline in BTC prices, which have fallen from $71,000 to just over $65,000 since June 5. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index of the largest tokens, is up 1.2%, but BTC is down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. The Shift to the AI Sector Miners' New Focus Market observers suggest that miners may be increasingly looking at the booming artificial intelligence (AI) sector instead of bitcoin. The diminishing mining rewards post-halving have prompted miners to seek alternative revenue channels. Powerful computing chips, essential for both AI and Bitcoin mining, make this shift feasible for miners. Industry Insights Lucy Hu, a senior analyst at Metalpha, shared that miners are diverting their focus to AI due to the fall in mining rewards. With AI firms demanding energy-intensive data centers, Bitcoin miners are gradually growing their revenue from sales to AI firms. This trend has led to increased selling of bitcoin rewards by miners. Market Reactions and Predictions ETF Outflows The recent selling activity by Bitcoin whales and miners has coincided with significant net outflows from U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs. Last week, these ETFs recorded net outflows of over $600 million, marking their worst performance since late April. Future Price Predictions Some traders have warned of a potential drop in BTC prices to as low as $60,000 in the absence of growth catalysts. The strong dollar, a flight away from riskier assets, and growth in traditional stock indices have all contributed to the current market conditions. Conclusion Bitcoin whales and miners have sold over $1 billion worth of BTC in the past two weeks, coinciding with significant net outflows from bitcoin ETFs. This selling activity is driven by a shift in focus from bitcoin mining to the AI sector and a lack of renewed buying interest from large holders. While the market remains volatile, the future direction of BTC prices will depend on various growth catalysts and market conditions.

A major tax debate is already heating up in Washington, set to dominate the political landscape in 2025. Key figures from both parties are laying out their red lines and preparing for a significant battle over tax policy. Warren's Red Lines Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called on Democrats to "stiffen our spines" for the upcoming tax fight. She advocates for new taxes on corporations and billionaires, making clear her red lines for the negotiation. Biden's Tax Plan President Joe Biden’s plan focuses on renewing provisions from the 2017 tax cut that impact Americans making under $400,000 a year, while letting the provisions for the wealthy revert to pre-2017 levels. His budget proposal also includes increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%. Republicans' Strategy: Extending 2017 Tax Cuts Trump's Tax Proposals Former President Donald Trump has floated various tax ideas, including reducing the corporate tax rate to 20% and even scrapping the US income tax system in favor of higher tariffs. His allies are working on methodical proposals to present a united front. House Republicans' Plans Rep. Jason Smith, chair of the House's tax-writing committee, has formed 10 'tax teams' to explore ideas ranging from community development to global competitiveness. Their goal is to extend the 2017 tax cuts and push for further reductions. Key Issues and Points of Contention Corporate Tax Rate The corporate tax rate, lowered to 21% from 35% by the 2017 Trump-era law, is a central issue. Republicans want to reduce it further, while Democrats aim to raise it, at least somewhat. Taxes on the Wealthy Democrats are pushing for higher taxes on billionaires and big corporations, framing it as a moral issue. Republicans are staunchly opposed, seeking to maintain or lower taxes for the wealthy. The Path Forward: Scenarios and Compromises Election Outcomes and Their Impact The true parameters of the debate will be decided by the results of the upcoming election. If either party sweeps, they could push their agenda with fewer compromises. A split decision would require detailed negotiations and likely force significant compromises on both sides. Potential Compromises In any scenario, compromises will be necessary. Even with a Republican sweep, the party will need to address internal debates about funding the extension of tax cuts, which could cost $4 trillion. Conclusion The 2025 tax debate in Washington is already shaping up to be a monumental battle. With both sides drawing red lines and preparing their strategies, the outcome will significantly impact US tax policy. As the political landscape unfolds, voters will play a crucial role in determining the direction of this critical issue.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify for the first presidential debate set for next week, CNN reported Thursday. The independent candidate's failure to meet the debate requirements poses a significant setback for his long-shot presidential bid. The Importance of Debate Qualification National Platform Missed Qualifying for CNN's debate would have given RFK Jr. a national platform to boost his campaign. The last independent candidate to make it to the presidential debate stage was Ross Perot in 1992, demonstrating the rarity and significance of such an opportunity. Debate Requirements To qualify for the June 27 presidential debate, candidates had to achieve at least 15% in four national polls that meet CNN's standards and secure ballot access in enough states to potentially win 270 electoral votes. Despite an aggressive campaign, Kennedy fell short. Current Status of RFK Jr.'s Campaign Ballot Access Challenges Kennedy's campaign claimed to have collected enough signatures for ballot access in states totaling 310 electoral votes. However, CNN reported that he was only on the ballot in states totaling 89 electoral votes, and many signatures were still pending verification by state election officials. Polling Performance Kennedy met the polling requirement in three national polls but needed one more to qualify. This shortfall prevented him from securing a spot on the debate stage. Accusations and Legal Actions Allegations of Collusion Kennedy has accused President Biden and former President Trump of "colluding" to keep him off the debate stage. He criticized their agreement to forgo traditional fall debates hosted by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. FEC Complaint Kennedy's campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, alleging that Biden, Trump, and CNN violated campaign finance law by preventing his participation in the debates. Future Opportunities and Campaign Strategy September Debate The next presidential debate is scheduled for September 10, hosted by ABC. This presents another opportunity for Kennedy to qualify and gain national attention. The qualifying standards for this debate have not yet been released. Ongoing Efforts Kennedy's campaign continues to push for nationwide ballot access and aims to meet the requirements for future debates. The success of these efforts will be crucial for maintaining the momentum of his presidential bid. Conclusion RFK Jr.'s failure to qualify for the first presidential debate is a significant hurdle for his campaign. Despite aggressive efforts, he fell short of the required polling and ballot access thresholds. As he looks ahead to the next debate in September, his ability to overcome these challenges will determine the viability of his presidential bid.

MicroStrategy, under the leadership of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, has acquired an additional 11,931 Bitcoins at an average price of approximately $65,883 per Bitcoin. This move comes shortly after the company announced the issuance of $800 million in convertible notes aimed at bolstering its cryptocurrency holdings. The convertible notes, set to mature in 2032 with a 2.25% interest rate, were unveiled last week as part of MicroStrategy's strategy to expand its Bitcoin reserves. These notes can be converted into cash, MicroStrategy class A common stock, or a combination thereof, subject to specific conditions until December 15, 2031. With this recent purchase, MicroStrategy now holds a total of 226,331 Bitcoins acquired at an average price of $36,798 per BTC, reflecting its strong conviction in Bitcoin as a strategic asset. The news has positively influenced Bitcoin's price, which is currently trading around $65,995, up 1.46% on the day, maintaining a market cap of $1.3 trillion. MicroStrategy's stock (NASDAQ: MSTR) has surged in pre-market trading, rising by 2.35% to surpass $1,500 levels. Year-to-date, MSTR shares have gained over 114%, outpacing Bitcoin's performance, which has seen a 145% increase over the same period last year. This move underscores MicroStrategy's significant position in the cryptocurrency market and its continued bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

In the latest report from the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly by 238,000 for the week ending June 15. This figure surpassed the anticipated 235,000 claims and slightly edged lower than the revised previous week's gain of 243,000 (revised from 242,000). Continuing jobless claims also increased by 15,000 to reach 1.828 million for the week ended June 8. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2%, while the 4-week moving average rose to 232,750, up by 5,500 from the previous week's unrevised average. Market reaction to the data saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading with modest gains around the 105.40 mark. This movement marks a partial rebound from recent sessions where the index faced a multi-session decline following the release of the weekly jobless claims report.

U.S. single-family home building saw a downturn in May amid sustained high mortgage rates. According to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, single-family housing starts fell by 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units last month. April's data was revised upwards, showing single-family starts at a rate of 1.036 million units, up from the previously reported 1.031 million units. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages has moderated recently, dropping to 6.95% last week from over 7% in April and May, as per Freddie Mac data. This easing, driven by softening labor market conditions, has reignited speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Permits for future construction of single-family homes also declined, dropping by 2.9% to a rate of 949,000 units in May.

US stocks have soared to all-time highs, with Nasdaq futures marking gains for the eighth consecutive day. This remarkable rally follows the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) unexpected decision to cut interest rates, setting the stage for more monetary easing. Key Takeaways US stocks and Nasdaq futures have reached all-time highs, demonstrating robust market performance. The Swiss National Bank's unexpected rate cut has significantly influenced global market movements. Tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, are leading the surge, marking substantial gains. US Stocks Soar To All-Time High: Market Performance Tech Sector Leads the Charge The tech sector has driven this surge, with Nvidia rising by 3% and other tech giants like Dell and Super Micro Computer also experiencing notable increases. The S&P 500 futures are up by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures have surged by 0.6%, marking the longest stretch of gains since November. Impact of SNB's Unexpected Rate Cut A Surprise Move The SNB's decision to cut rates for the second time this year aims to support economic growth amid decreasing inflation pressures. This move has significantly influenced global markets, with European stocks, particularly in technology, chemical, and construction sectors, seeing gains. The Stoxx 600 benchmark climbed by 0.6%. Notable Stock Performances Standout Gainers Nvidia: Surged by 3%, extending its lead over other tech giants. Accenture: Rose by 6% after posting strong quarterly results. Harrow: Gained 13% following a successful relaunch update for its corticosteroid Triesence. Underperformers Trump Media & Technology Group: Declined by 11% following a regulatory filing that could dilute shareholders. Winnebago Industries: Slipped by 4.8% after posting quarterly profits that missed analyst estimates. Key Economic Indicators and Future Projections Economic Indicators Recent economic indicators, such as jobless claims and housing data, provide insights into the health of the economy and have influenced market movements. Analysts are optimistic about US stocks' future, driven by potential further rate cuts and AI-driven investments. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns could impact the market. Conclusion US stocks have reached an all-time high, driven by strong market performance and the SNB's unexpected rate cut. The tech sector has led the charge, with notable gains in companies like Nvidia and Dell. Future projections remain optimistic, though potential risks remain.

In a significant move towards prioritizing AI safety, Ilya Sutskever, the former chief scientist and co-founder of OpenAI, has announced the launch of his new venture, Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI). The company aims to develop a powerful AI system with a strong emphasis on safety, diverging from the commercial pressures faced by existing AI giants like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft. Safe Superintelligence Inc.: A New Era in AI Safety Safe Superintelligence Inc. is set to revolutionize the AI landscape by ensuring that safety and capabilities are developed in tandem. Unlike other AI companies that often grapple with external pressures and management overhead, SSI will focus exclusively on creating a safe and robust AI system. “Our business model means safety, security, and progress are all insulated from short-term commercial pressures,” the company stated. This unique approach allows SSI to advance its AI technology without the distractions that typically affect large corporations. The Team Behind Safe Superintelligence Inc. SSI is co-founded by notable figures in the AI industry. Alongside Sutskever, Daniel Gross, a former AI lead at Apple, and Daniel Levy, a former member of the technical staff at OpenAI, bring their expertise to the new venture. This strong leadership team is poised to make significant strides in the development of safe AI technologies. Context and Background Sutskever’s departure from OpenAI in May came after a period of intense scrutiny and internal conflict, including his involvement in the controversial firing and rehiring of CEO Sam Altman. His resignation was followed by other high-profile exits from OpenAI, all citing concerns over the company’s shifting focus towards product development at the expense of safety protocols. Addressing the Need for AI Safety The establishment of Safe Superintelligence Inc. reflects a growing concern within the AI community about the safe development and deployment of artificial intelligence. By focusing on safety, SSI aims to mitigate the risks associated with powerful AI systems, ensuring they are developed responsibly. During an interview with Bloomberg, Sutskever emphasized that SSI's first product will be safe superintelligence, and the company “will not do anything else” until then. This highlights the company's commitment to its core mission of AI safety. Conclusion Safe Superintelligence Inc., under the leadership of Ilya Sutskever, represents a significant shift in the AI industry towards prioritizing safety over commercial interests. As the company progresses, it will be closely watched by both AI experts and industry leaders, potentially setting a new standard for responsible AI development.

In a bold move reflecting his pro-crypto stance, Argentine President Javier Milei has reiterated his support for integrating Bitcoin (BTC) and promoting free currency competition within Argentina’s economy. This approach aims to provide citizens with the freedom to choose their preferred monetary units, potentially reshaping the nation's financial landscape. Milei’s Vision for Currency Competition In a recent social media exchange, Milei assured that his administration would allow for the free competition of currencies, including Bitcoin, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and British Thermal Units (BTU). This commitment to financial diversity echoes El Salvador’s pioneering adoption of Bitcoin but is tailored to address Argentina's unique economic challenges. Argentina has faced significant inflationary pressures in recent years, coupled with tax uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrencies. Despite these obstacles, Milei is steadfast in his vision to institutionalize Bitcoin and other currencies within the Argentine economy. In December 2023, the government affirmed its stance by allowing contracts in Bitcoin, bolstering confidence within the crypto community. Support and Criticism of Argentina Bitcoin Adoption Milei’s advocacy for Bitcoin and free currency competition has garnered mixed reactions. While some praise his innovative approach to economic management, others criticize his concessions to international regulatory pressures. Notably, in early 2024, Milei faced backlash from the crypto community, including El Salvador, for implementing stricter regulations on Virtual Asset Service Providers (PSAV) under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines. Nevertheless, the potential for free currency competition in Argentina could significantly alter the economic landscape, especially amidst ongoing inflation and uncertainty. The coming months will be crucial in observing how these policies are implemented and accepted. Milei’s Bitcoin Promotion and Economic Strategy Responding to former VanEck executive Gabor Gurbacs on social media, Milei stated that there would be no restrictions on using Bitcoin or other currency units for business purposes. This statement has been welcomed by the global Bitcoin community, with notable figures like Charles Hoskinson of Cardano expressing interest in Argentina’s evolving crypto policies. Since assuming office in November, Milei has been proactive in addressing Argentina’s economic instability. While some advisors have suggested adopting Bitcoin as part of the national treasury, Milei has yet to take an official stance. However, collaborative efforts between Argentine and Salvadoran agencies indicate a developing strategy for Bitcoin adoption. The Path Forward for Argentina’s Crypto Adoption Milei’s administration is seen as a beacon for crypto enthusiasts, given his public endorsement of Bitcoin's potential to empower individuals economically. His policies have attracted the attention of major industry players and even endorsements from influential figures like Elon Musk. The ongoing development and implementation of Milei’s Bitcoin and free currency competition policies will be pivotal. Observers are keen to see if Argentina can replicate the success of El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment, especially in a larger and more complex economy. The potential benefits of such a policy shift could be significant, providing a much-needed boost to Argentina's economic resilience amidst persistent inflation and financial instability.

A recent report from Barclays has revealed that net immigration to the U.S. reached 4 million last year, surpassing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of 3.3 million. This new data suggests that the impact of immigration on the U.S. economy is more significant than previously understood. At the same time, former President Donald Trump has heavily criticized President Biden's immigration policies, attributing a recent horrific crime in New York to what he calls the "Biden migrant" crisis. Key Takeaways: Barclays Report: New estimates show 4 million immigrants last year, exceeding CBO’s 3.3 million. Economic Impact: Immigration surge eased labor shortages and boosted U.S. economy, contributing to output growth. Political Reactions: Trump criticizes Biden’s policies, linking immigration to recent crimes and calling for stricter controls. Barclays Report Highlights Immigration Surge Barclays' report, which utilizes a new tracker combining data from 14 official sources, indicates that the CBO underestimated the scale of immigration by not accounting for the record surge in December. This surge in humanitarian immigration, primarily from Central and South America, has reportedly bolstered the U.S. economy by easing labor shortages and supporting aggregate demand. The Barclays team, led by Marc Giannoni, credits the immigration wave with contributing to a resilient macroeconomic outlook. They argue that without this influx, labor shortages would have been more pronounced, potentially exacerbating wage and price pressures and necessitating a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Economic Implications of Biden's Immigration Policies The report estimates that the 4 million increase in immigration led to a 2.5 million increase in the labor force last year, accounting for about three-quarters of the increase in private payroll employment. Additionally, hours worked by immigrants contributed to nearly a third of output growth, offsetting a decline in hours worked by native-born workers. Despite the economic benefits highlighted in the report, the Biden administration's recent efforts to stem immigration are expected to reduce payroll gains by 65,000 per month next year. A return to Trump-era policies could further reduce them by about 125,000 per month. The new Biden immigration policies, which went into effect on June 4, won't show up in the labor data yet due to the six-month delay between individuals entering the country as humanitarian immigrants and then receiving work authorization. Trump Criticizes Biden's Immigration Policies Former President Donald Trump has seized on recent immigration-related incidents to criticize President Biden's policies. In a rally in Wisconsin, Trump condemned the administration's approach, citing the recent attack on two children in New York by an illegal immigrant as an example of the dangers posed by the current immigration system. The crime in question involved an illegal Ecuadorian immigrant who is currently in NYPD custody. The individual allegedly attacked two 13-year-old children in broad daylight at a popular park in Queens, New York. The attacker, wielding a machete, tied the boy and girl together by the wrists and raped the girl. This brutal incident occurred in an area close to prominent landmarks like Citi Field and the site of the 1964 World’s Fair. Trump used this incident to highlight what he views as the failures of Biden's immigration policies. He stated that these "Biden migrants" are flooding the country, bringing crime and instability. He warned that the situation would deteriorate further unless he is re-elected, describing the U.S. as a "dumping ground for the world." Trump emphasized the need for stricter immigration controls to ensure public safety and prevent such tragedies. Broader Political and Economic Context The contrasting views on immigration underscore the complex dynamics at play. On one hand, reports like Barclays' highlight the positive economic impact of increased immigration, which has helped mitigate labor shortages and support growth. On the other hand, high-profile crimes involving immigrants fuel public fear and political opposition, as seen in Trump's rhetoric. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows a tight race between Trump and Biden, with immigration policies likely to be a pivotal issue in the upcoming election. Conclusion The debate over Biden's immigration policies remains a contentious issue in the U.S., with significant implications for both the economy and public safety. As new data emerges, it is clear that the impact of immigration is multifaceted, offering both challenges and opportunities for policymakers and the public to consider.

The Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision today at 1100 GMT, with expectations firmly leaning towards maintaining the current rate at a 16-year high of 5.25%. Economists foresee a cautious approach from the central bank, reserving potential rate cuts for later in the year, possibly in August. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at the possibility of a rate cut last month, citing optimism about economic progress but stopping short of confirming imminent action. This decision comes amidst persistent inflation pressures, which have kept rates elevated despite recent fluctuations. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, facing a critical July 4 election, had hoped for a rate cut to bolster economic sentiment. However, with inflation recently returning to the Bank's 2% target and expected to climb again, the central bank's focus remains on maintaining stability amid economic uncertainties. The outcome of today's rate decision could impact market expectations, influencing future monetary policy and economic strategies ahead of the UK election.